Customer churn is a fact—and you must work very hard within every corner of your business to prevent and reduce it. One very effective way of managing this is to measure and act on predictive churn scores.

Engage keeps an eye on each customer’s overall engagement to make an assessment whether this customer shows signs of declining interest in your business. Looking at things such as opening rates, click rates, purchase frequency, etc., churn score is the probability (0–1) that a customer will fall below a certain limit value in their purchase frequency within a certain time.

The time and limit value are unique to each Engage customer, based on how the normal purchase pattern looks like according to the model.

The churn scoring predicts behavior with a certain margin of error. This means that the events that the scoring are forecasting may not yet have happened. Using this type of values means that you can keep an eye on those customers which are predicted to have a high risk for churn.

Score Description
0.0–0.50 Active (Low churn score)
0.51–0.75 Declining (Medium churn score)
0.76–1.00 Leaving (High churn score)

How to act on predictive values

If a customer is predicted to have a high churn, it's very likely that he/she doesn't open your emails often and doesn't have an overall interest in your brand anymore. For this reason, it is recommended that you test different channels to approach the customer to see which channel works. Also keep in mind that you probably won't rescue most of your churners but pushing an occasional extra visit to your site or store will add up in the long run.

Prevent churn as early as possible

An example of a use case for preventing churn is to combine the predictive churn score with recent behavior. Set up an automation that fetches possible churners and process them with urgent offers. Here is an example:


  • Create a target audience by combining "Declining" with "Not purchased recently".
  • Build an automation to keep track of customers that are moved from the "Active" to the "Declining" target group.
  • Add a 'sense of urgency' offer to the automation to try and reactivate the declining customers.

Read about CLV—Customer Lifetime Value here.

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